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LSE PPA | M5 U3 Activity Solution

1. Instructions and guidelines (Read carefully)

Instructions

1.    Insert your name and surname in the space provided above, as well as in the file name. Save the file as: First name Surname M5 U3 Activity Submission – e.g. Lilly Smith M5 U3 Activity Submission. NB: Please ensure that you use the name that appears in your student profile on the Online Campus.

2.    Write all your answers in this document. There is an instruction that says, “Start writing here” under each question. Please type your answer there.

3.    Submit your assignment in Microsoft Word only. No other file types will be accepted.

4.    Do not delete the plagiarism declaration or the assignment instructions and guidelines. They must remain in your assignment when you submit.

PLEASE NOTE: Plagiarism cases will be investigated in line with the Terms and Conditions for Students.

IMPORTANT NOTICE: Please ensure that you have checked your course calendar for the due date for this assignment.

Guidelines

1.    There are 8 pages and 1 question in this assignment.

2.    Make sure that you have carefully read and fully understood the questions before answering them. Answer the questions fully but concisely and as directly as possible. Follow all specific instructions for individual questions (e.g. “list”, “in point form”).

3.    Answer all questions in your own words. Do not copy any text from the notes, readings, or other sources. The assignment must be your own work only.

2. Mark allocation

The question is worth 12 marks. However, you will only receive a final percentage mark and will not be given individual marks for the question. Use the grading rubric to see how marks will be allocated.

3. Context

For this activity submission, imagine that you are a policymaker in the Department of Employment and Labour in Easteros. In 2015, the Department gave notice that, in 2017, a new skills development programme would be implemented in two districts in Easteros. The programme is targeted at individuals with no tertiary education. It will run for two years and researchers hope that it will lead to significant increases in participants’ earnings.

Two research teams were chosen to assess the effectiveness of the pilot programmes and to establish whether the programme should be implemented nationally. The results of the impact evaluations have just been delivered and are outlined in this section.

	Research team 1: Southern District Lead researcher: Dr S. Harmse
Hypothesis	H0= The two-year training programme has no impact on the earnings of participants. H1= The two-year training programme leads to an increase in the average salary of participants.
Population size	There are 2,000 registered people with only secondary education in Southern District.
Sample group	The treatment group was randomly selected from participants in a pre-existing study. The control group was randomly chosen from individuals who did not participate. This resulted in treatment and control groups of 800 participants each.
Methodology	This project uses a quasi-experimental design, namely a difference-in-differences methodology. The average earnings in the target and control groups were measured before and after the policy was rolled out. The first analysis was conducted in 2015 and the second in 2019.
Findings	The findings of this research project are shown in Figure 1. The average income of both groups was £1,000 in 2015. The growth in income was the same for both groups until 2017, when the skills development initiative was introduced. The incomes of these two groups diverged after this point, with the control group averaging £1,400 in 2019 and the treatment group averaging £1,500 .   Figure 1: Graph of research results. The difference-in-differences calculation is as follows: Difference in income of control group: £1,400 − £1,000 = £400 = 40% increase Difference in income of treatment group: £1,500 − £1,000 = £500 = 50% increase
Recommendation	There was a very slight increase in average income associated with the skills development initiative. It is possible that, over the course of a longer period of time, the change in income might increase. We therefore recommend running the programme for a further two years, in order to establish a clearer idea of the trend. As it stands, the cost of implementing the training programme is high, relative to the small increase in income.

4. Question

Once you have explored the details of the two impact evaluations in the previous section, answer the following four questions:

1. Which of the two research projects do you find most convincing, and why?
   1. What are the strengths and weaknesses of the research project that you have chosen?
   1. What are possible confounding variables that could impact the results of these research projects?
   1. Based on your answer to the previous three questions, would you recommend that the skills development programme be implemented nationally? Why, or why not?

Substantiate your answer to the four questions with theory that you have covered in this module. Your submission as a whole, excluding in-text citations and your list of references, may not exceed 800 words.

Start writing here:

1.1

Based on the information provided, in find research team 1 for Southern District is most convincing due to multiple reasons. The first reason is that the finding is based on proper analysis of the income of the two groups, before and after the pilot training program. Despite an increase in earnings of $500, the research team recommended that the training program should be undertaken for further 2 years since some factors would cause a change in income over the years. The existence of other factors that may increase income over the years can be explained by the results of the increase in income reported by the control group. On the other hand, the second research team did not measure the income of both the treatment team and the control team before the commencement of the pilot training program. This makes the analysis and recommendation of the research team 2 to be less convincing.

Another reason why I find research team 1 convincing is that they used a good hypothesis, which relates to the findings and the objectives of the Department of Employment and Labour in Easteros. Notably, research team 1 aimed at investigating the impact of the training program on the participant’s earnings, unlike research team 2 who aimed at investigating the impact of the training program on employment. This makes research team 1’s results more convincing and realistic than that of research team 2.

1.2

One of the primary strengths of the research project in the Southern District is a large and reasonable sample size that significantly represents the entire population. With a population of 2,000 people without tertiary education, the research team randomly selected 800 participants for both the experimental group and the control group. A large sample size used by the research team increased the power of the study and reduced the probability of type II error. This is congruent with the assertions by Columb et al. (2016). The researchers assert that the power of the study is increased by increasing the sample size, thus lowering the probability of incorrectly accepting the null hypothesis. Similarly, the large sample size for research team 1 shows the high power of the study.

The project does not explain the cause of the increase in the income of the control team between 2017 and 2019. Since the project does not explain the significant rise in the income for the control team during the period of the pilot study, it would be necessary for the Department to identify the possible causes of an increase in income for proper decision making.

1.3

The type of employment or income sources for the participants is one of the confounding variables that could impact the results of these projects. With proper identification of the type of employment, the research teams could align the training program towards the specific employment. It would not be practical to apply a training program that does not associate with the participant’s source of income. Similarly, the type of employment or source of income is more likely to influence the participants’ earnings. Those working for various organisations and those who engage in small businesses are more likely to earn different amounts.

The type or nature of training is another confounding variable that could affect the result of the projects. The nature of the training program could influence both the independent and dependent variables. Regarding the independent variable, the nature of training could influence how the training programs are implemented, thus impacting the results. For instance, the research team could use seminars or online conferences to implement a training program. On the other hand, the nature of training could also influence the participants’ income due to the results attributable to the program. Vinesh (2014) asserts that the nature of training plays a vital role in enabling the participants to gain adequate skills and knowledge. Similarly, the nature of training could impact the results of the projects.

1.4

Based on the findings, I would recommend the skill development plan be implemented nationally. In both projects, the findings show that there is a relatively significant improvement in participants’ earnings after the implementation of the training program. The department can rely on the recommendations of the research team 1 on Southern District to make an appropriate decision. However, the department should investigate the cause of the steady increase in income despite the implementation of the training program; this will be useful in making appropriate decisions. With a proper understanding of the causes of price increase, the Department will align the training program will the participant’s sources of income. It is also necessary to address the impact of the confounding variables that could affect the result of the projects. The Department of Employment and Labour in Easteros should identify the participant’s sources of income and ensure that the skill development program is appropriate.

References

Columb., F., & Atkinson, F. (2016) Statistical analyais: sample size and power estimation. BJA Education, 16 (5): 156-161. Accessed from https://academic.oup.com/bjaed/article-pdf/16/5/159/7083728/mkv034.pdf

Vinesh., A. (2014). Role of Training & Development in an Organisational Development. International Journal of Management and International Business Studies. ISSN 2277-3177 Vol.4, no 2. Accessed from https://www.ripublication.com/ijmibs-spl/ijmibsv4n2spl_13.pdf